Analyst: Jeremy Mikael
ASII reports 1Q25 net profit of IDR6.9tn (-15.4% q-q; -7.11p11t y-y), only fulfills 23/211TP11 t from our estimate/consensus. Weak performance mainly comes from the HEMCE segment (UNTR; 59.5% ownership) with net profit of IDR1.96tn (-19.3% Q-Q; -30% Y-Y). Meanwhile, The automotive segment is relatively tough with the contribution of net income IDR2.73TN (+0.2% Q-Q; -0.8% y-y), supported Improvement of spare parts and after-sales business Even though 4W sales declined.
🚘 New Industry & Strategy Outlook
Management now estimates National Wholesales 2025 at 820–860K Unit (down from 860–900K units), with ASII Market Share Projected Stable. The key strategy is to launch a new hybrid mass-market model, estimated to be Veloz/Avanza hybrid with a 7-seater configuration and prices according to local purchasing power. NJKB Toyota Veloz Hybrid even already recorded in Permendagri No. 8/2024.
🏥 The pillars of the health business are starting to grow
The health segment began to show positive results. heartology, ASII's Cardiovascular Hospital, notes Patient surge ~50% Y-Y at 1Q25, with Utilization still <50%. It opens Large growth room Given the vast Indonesian cardiovascular market.
📉 Forecast revision & price target
We lowered the projection of FY25/26 as the performance adjustment of UNTR. The 12-month price target is revised to IDR5,400 (from IDR5,600), stick with BUY RECOMMENDATION Because of the potential upside 11.8% from the last price. Besides, Final Dividend IDR308/share (yield 6.4%) will be decided at the AGMS tomorrow (8 May 2025).
⚠️ Main risks: 4W/2W sales were lower than expected, delayed launch of new models, and weaker commodity prices for hemce and agribusiness.
📎 Full PDF: bsasii0825
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Regards
Investment Specialist
